Tracer-aided hydrological models as trustworthy tools for sustainable water resources and ecosystem management?
Abstract: Trustworthy hydrological models can be useful tools to aid inform natural resources management and decision making. However, our confidence in models may suffer from many internal (e.g. structural, parametric errors) and external (e.g. errors in forcing and evaluation data) uncertainties. Furthermore, models can produce potentially misleading results if trained only to match discharge observations. The latter limited information content of the hydrograph used for model fitting - despite the integrated nature of discharge observations - can be partially alleviated with tracers, which in turn represent useful additional information on many different types of hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological processes for modelling. Tracers enhance our limited understanding of how catchments process water and solutes providing insights into the geographical source and mixing, flow pathways, runoff generation, solute and material transport, connectivity, vegetation and ecosystem processes and transit times of water. In this research seminar, I propose that we can gain confidence in hydrological model simulations, if they capture and reproduce crucial characteristics of catchment functioning. To illustrate this issue, I will present examples from recent research in the tropics, that combines experimental tracer and model work in an attempt to:
(1) go beyond hydrograph simulation alone building more realistic models of catchment functioning based on tracer data,
(2) investigate the non-linear, threshold-type, non-stationary and hysteresis-driven nature of how catchments process water and solutes and
(3) study connectivity patterns and the role of vegetation on water partitioning with ecosystem management issues in mind.
Homepage Prof Christian Birkel
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