Improving the forecast for biodiversity in the global heat age
Abstract: Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and its many contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. As global temperatures rise, a synthesis of existing projection models predicts that 30% of species could become endangered. Yet, current models often do not incorporate the fundamental biological mechanisms that could mediate these risks. Therefore, we are ill-prepared to pinpoint when, where, and how to prevent the largest extinction event in human history. Although 20 years behind in predicting climate change effects on biodiversity, I believe that ecologists can rapidly increase our ability to make accurate forecasts in the coming years if we start now. Toward this end, I outline a plan to build a universal biodiversity forecasting platform, patterned after the development of general circulation models in climate science. This effort will require international coordination and funding, but not more than similarly bold efforts in climate science, astronomy, and physics. We need to make rapid progress on projecting biodiversity because, in the end, we cannot protect what we cannot predict.
IGB Colloquia open up!
IGB strives to facilitate and accelerate the exchange of knowledge and ideas within and also outside of IGB. One element contributing to inter- and transdisciplinary exchange, and more (scientific) cooperation and innovation, is to open up IGB Colloquia to an interested external audience from science (other research institutes, universities, laboratories) as well as practice (i.e. conservationists, freshwater/land-use managers, authorities, associations). If you would like to join this IGB Colloquium as a guest, we ask you to register until the morning of the colloquium 10 o'clock the latest. After we have checked your registration, you will receive the participation link.